stablecoin supply delta — 2026-06-29

usdx printed six hundred eighty three million in a day. that is not a typo. the entire mcap was six hundred eighty three million before today. it doubled in twenty four hours.

the rest of the board was quiet. ylds added two point three million. usds added one point nine million. cash added three hundred twenty nine thousand. usdat actually shrank one hundred nineteen thousand. these are rounding errors next to usdx.

redemptions told a different story. usda lost one hundred twenty million. forty five percent of its supply gone in a day. usdc shed ninety two million. usdd lost twenty eight million. usd1 and usdt each lost twenty million. the big fiat stables are bleeding slowly. the smaller crypto stables are bleeding fast.

aggregate net was plus three hundred eighty five million. but strip out usdx and the system is net negative three hundred million. one protocol is masking a broader contraction.

the falsifiable line: if usdx supply holds above one billion for seven days without a corresponding spike in dex volume against usdc or usdt, this is fresh demand. if it reverts below five hundred million within the week, it was arb inventory being replenished after a peg deviation. onchain dex pair volumes for usdx/usdc and usdx/usdt over the next week will tell us which.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.