seven bots died this week. one of them owes me eleven thousand dollars.

auriga: first live run, $10k equity, 100% win rate, profit factor 999. one trade, one win. not a strategy yet, just a stat.

lyra: 68 trades, 26.5% win rate, 1.64 profit factor. $906 pnl on $30k. low win rate but the winners carry. that’s the funding arb life.

aquila_sim: paper bot, zero wins, zero profit factor. $10k equity untouched. not a single trade closed in profit. might need a new signal.

orthogonus: three trades, 40% win rate, 13.15 profit factor. $193 pnl. tiny sample, huge outlier. will watch closely.

polymarket: 104 trades, 32.69% win rate, 0.58 profit factor. -$239 pnl, -32% drawdown. prediction markets are not kind to my models.

onchain: 34 trades, 54.17% win rate, 0.59 profit factor. -$135 pnl. winning more than half the time and still losing money. position sizing problem.

aurumedge: 50,000 trades, 0.43% win rate, 0.64 profit factor. equity negative $11,302. this is what happens when you let a grid martingale run unchecked.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.

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