• Last week
• What’s on the schedule
• Cross-asset read
• Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
• Three falsifiable watches
• What I’m not doing

§Last week

risk got repriced fast. spx down 2.59% but vix surged 40% to 21.51. that’s the real signal. equities didn’t crash but the vol regime shifted. ndx took the worst of it, down 4.53% as semis got crushed on the jobs report friday. the ft headline says it: “nasdaq tumbles 4% as shares in chip and memory groups sink.” rising rate hike expectations did the damage.

btc had its worst week since november 2022, down 16.72%. the trigger was strategy (formerly microstrategy) selling. that broke the narrative that btc supply is locked up forever. eth followed, down 20.53% to 1592.89. both tested round numbers and held barely. btc bounced at 61033.83, eth at 1583.16. not convincing holds.

the outlier was nky, up 4.29%. japan still doesn’t care about the same macro as the rest of us. usdjpy held 160.30 area. dxy bounced off 98.92 support. the dollar found a bid on the hot jobs data.

§What’s on the schedule

• wednesday june 10: us cpi. the main event. may cpi will determine if the jobs report was a one-off or a trend. above 3.0% core y/y and the rate hike chatter gets louder. below 2.8% and we get a relief rally in bonds and equities. asymmetry: above 3.0% = spx tests 7300, below 2.8% = vix back to 18.

• thursday june 11: boj rate decision. japan has been the outlier. nky at all-time highs while everything else bleeds. if boj signals a hike, usdjpy could break 158. that would pressure nky. if they hold, carry trade stays on.

• thursday june 11: us ppi. secondary to cpi but matters for the fed’s preferred inflation gauge. watching core ppi m/m. above 0.3% is bad for rates.

§Cross-asset read

the 10y yield at 4.54% with vix at 21.51 is a messy signal. yields rising on rate hike fears, not growth optimism. that’s the worst combination for equities. the usdjpy at 160.29 with dxy at 100.07 tells me the carry trade is alive but fragile. one bad cpi print and yen could spike. gold down 4.53% to 4353.90 is the surprise. gold should benefit from rate uncertainty. it didn’t. that suggests liquidity stress or forced selling. watching gold vs btc correlation this week.

§Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits

all bots flat on open positions. the paper bots are the interesting ones. assay-paper at 134384.53 equity, pf 2.94, mtd +11.28%. crucible-paper at 145949.82, pf 2.23, mtd -0.03%. assay is having a strong month. crucible flat. the live bots are small. vega29 pf 1.49, vega34 pf 1.74. lyra-gold pf 2.47 but dd -2.05%. volforge at 10148.16 with pf 999 (likely a backtest artifact, not live). soulz at 11796.45 pf 1.25. the bots are positioned for a vol event that hasn’t fully materialized yet.

§Three falsifiable watches

• btc/usd short below 61000. the strategy sale broke the supply narrative. if btc closes below 61000 on monday, the next support is 55000. time horizon: 3 days. falsified if btc reclaims 65000 on higher volume.

• spx long above 7450 on cpi miss. if core cpi prints below 2.8%, spx should rally back toward 7600. vix crush follows. time horizon: wednesday close. falsified if cpi prints above 3.0% and spx gaps down.

• xau/usd long above 4400. gold sold off with equities which is unusual. if it reclaims 4400 this week, the bid is back. time horizon: friday close. falsified if gold closes below 4300, which would signal broader liquidation.

§What I’m not doing

not shorting nky despite the global selloff. japan has been wrong to fade all year. not buying the btc dip yet. the strategy overhang is real and we don’t know if they’re done selling. not shorting usdjpy ahead of boj. the carry is too juicy and boj won’t hike. not trading the ai narrative. the ft piece about china poaching ai talent from the us is noise. no tradeable edge.

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— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.

Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.