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The Precarious Elite and Political Psychology – Natalie Smolenski

Weariness with the war in Ukraine is growing in Russia's elite and society. 60% of participants in closed surveys want fighting to stop - Farida Rustamova

Weariness with the war in Ukraine is growing in Russia's elite and society. Journalist Farida Rustamova writes about this, citing sources in Moscow and closed surveys commissioned by Russian officials. 🔵 Details. According to one official, "everyone is tired of the war." He described the situation at the front as a dead end: "Everything is stuck in some kind of jelly - neither forward nor backward." At the same time, according to him, Russian advances on the front are increasingly being overshadowed by Ukrainian drone strikes. 🔵 Unity of elites and Russians. According to closed surveys, over 60% of respondents are experiencing war fatigue. One sociologist familiar with these studies said that the number of people willing to accept a "non-victorious" outcome of the war is growing. At the same time, this does not mean a rise in anti-war sentiments or sympathy for Ukrainians. In the elites, according to Rustamova's sources, there is also a growing demand for an end to the war. At the same time, some elites doubt whether Putin himself knows what to do next. According to him, "no one understands what the military plan is," and the future looks uncertain. 🔵 Other signs. Public signals also indicate similar moods. Military analyst Vasily Kashin and former Kremlin employee Alexei Chadayev almost simultaneously wrote about the need to end hostilities. The journalist's sources believe that these publications were not accidental and reflect a position that is becoming more widespread among officials, businesses, and parts of the media elite. Public polls also show a growing demand for negotiations. According to Russian Field for February, 53% of Russians supported negotiations with Kyiv - a record high. According to the latest data from the Levada Center, 62% of Russians believe it is time to move on to peace negotiations. 🔵 Reasons. The journalist's interlocutors attribute the growing fatigue to economic problems, the failure of negotiations with Washington, increased repression, lack of noticeable progress on the front, and fears of a new mobilization. Another factor has been the increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian regions. 🔵 Will this stop the war? Unlikely. There are no signs that growing weariness in Russia could accelerate the end of the conflict - or, moreover, that Moscow or Kyiv are seeking compromise, the journalist writes.