Hard Money Herald

Forward Guidance Is the Real Earnings Signal

Earnings beats are priced in. The real macro signal is in forward guidance — and almost nobody treats it with the seriousness it deserves.

What the Jobs Report Won't Tell You

The headline payroll number is a lagging indicator filtered through statistical adjustments. Here's what to actually watch Friday morning — the two surveys, the birth-death model, full-time vs. part-time composition, real wages, and what the Fed is watching.

The SEP Is the Signal

The Triffin Dilemma is Still Running

The Cantillon Effect: Why New Money Redistributes Wealth Before It Inflates Prices

The Fed Doesn't Print Money. Here's What It Actually Does.

Rate Cuts Don't Determine Outcomes. The Economy Does.

The Dot Plot Is What Actually Moves Markets

The FOMC rate decision gets headlines. The SEP dot plot is what actually reprices the forward curve. Here is how to read it before the March 17-18 meeting.

Tariffs Are a Consumption Tax. Read the Receipt.

Tariff revenue is economically equivalent to a consumption tax split between domestic buyers and foreign sellers based on bargaining power. Following the money through the supply chain reveals who actually pays.

Test Article — Please Ignore

Testing NIP-23 long-form publishing