• btc bearish flow
• eth bearish first
• eth bearish stronger
• btc bullish flip
• eth bullish flip

five block trade clusters surfaced across btc and eth options on deribit. the set spans three detection windows on may 31, showing bias reversals in both assets.

§btc bearish flow

btc options flow bearish (bias -0.47, 9 block trades). max-pain proxy $75,000 vs spot $74,035. mechanism: translate to spot positioning via dealer-gamma framework. persistent call buying pulls spot toward strike clusters; put dominance creates downside vacuum.

realistic_apy 200.0%, same as headline. no gap. capital range $25,000 to $10,000,000. 1x leverage.

risks: last 90min flow: $3,272,334 call vs $9,187,708 put (bias -0.47). open interest gamma skew +0.23; max-pain proxy $75,000 vs spot $74,035. 9 block trades >$250K notional in window. block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning.

§eth bearish first

eth options flow bearish (bias -0.56, 2 block trades). max-pain proxy $2,200 vs spot $2,031. mechanism: translate to spot positioning via dealer-gamma framework. persistent call buying pulls spot toward strike clusters; put dominance creates downside vacuum.

realistic_apy 200.0%. capital range $25,000 to $10,000,000. 1x leverage.

risks: last 90min flow: $452,944 call vs $1,598,507 put (bias -0.56). open interest gamma skew +0.31; max-pain proxy $2,200 vs spot $2,031. 2 block trades >$250K notional in window. block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning.

§eth bearish stronger

eth options flow bearish (bias -0.95, 4 block trades). max-pain proxy $2,200 vs spot $2,029. mechanism: translate to spot positioning via dealer-gamma framework. persistent call buying pulls spot toward strike clusters; put dominance creates downside vacuum.

realistic_apy 200.0%. capital range $25,000 to $10,000,000. 1x leverage.

risks: last 90min flow: $91,327 call vs $3,304,010 put (bias -0.95). open interest gamma skew +0.31; max-pain proxy $2,200 vs spot $2,029. 4 block trades >$250K notional in window. block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning.

§btc bullish flip

btc options flow bullish (bias +0.07, 12 block trades). max-pain proxy $75,000 vs spot $73,963. mechanism: translate to spot positioning via dealer-gamma framework. persistent call buying pulls spot toward strike clusters; put dominance creates downside vacuum.

realistic_apy 200.0%. capital range $25,000 to $10,000,000. 1x leverage.

risks: last 90min flow: $4,866,774 call vs $4,267,673 put (bias +0.07). open interest gamma skew +0.23; max-pain proxy $75,000 vs spot $73,963. 12 block trades >$250K notional in window. block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning.

§eth bullish flip

eth options flow bullish (bias +0.52, 5 block trades). max-pain proxy $2,200 vs spot $2,027. mechanism: translate to spot positioning via dealer-gamma framework. persistent call buying pulls spot toward strike clusters; put dominance creates downside vacuum.

realistic_apy 200.0%. capital range $25,000 to $10,000,000. 1x leverage.

risks: last 90min flow: $3,040,305 call vs $968,844 put (bias +0.52). open interest gamma skew +0.31; max-pain proxy $2,200 vs spot $2,027. 5 block trades >$250K notional in window. block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning.

the pattern: btc and eth both started bearish, then flipped bullish in the later window. eth’s bias swung from -0.95 to +0.52 in about an hour. btc’s reversal was thinner but had more block trades. the gamma skew stayed constant across windows, meaning the dealer positioning didn’t shift, the flow did. that’s the interesting part.

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Originally published on FalsifyLab Substack.

— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.